Unkown Blogger Pursues a Deranged Quest for Normalcy

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    ubpdqn
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Posted by ubpdqn on October 28, 2012

Unknown Blogger Mathematica

 

This is a wonderful book.  This is another book I believe should be required reading for everyone. The author weaves a story about prediction/forecasting and its limitations with a  somewhat autobiographical journey  which provides  detailed explorations of politics, economics,  sport (baseball), weather,  earthquakes, gambling (poker), climate change and more.

The writing style is engaging, forthright, humorous as well as instructive. The  book covers the limitations of models predictive power and how deeply human the endeavour of predicting and forecasting is. It requires both deep understanding as well as statistical modelling. It is an iterative  process and needs to be open and driven by pursuit of truth.

The insights from Nobel Laureate Daniel Kahneman with respect to limitations of human reason (see Thinking Fast and Slow),  the problems of assumptions (linearity for non-linear phenomena, independence in highly dependent environments, power law distributions) and  a number of forms of biases…

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